2024 Us Election Prediction Model. 538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing democrat kamala harris’s and republican donald trump’s chances of winning. As of the end of july 2024, assuming a biden gallup approval score of 40 percent and a continued rate of jobs growth between 1 and 2 percent, the model predicts a very narrow democratic 2024 victory in the electoral college (275 votes).
Uncertainty) could lead to their model being incorrect for the 2024 election (a venerable and admirable. Our election model expects polls this year to be off by 3.8 points on average, although it could be more or less — and our model thinks this error is equally likely to favor.
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